关键词:  老龄化, 长期护理保险, 商业保险

Abstract: With rapid development of the insurance market and the ageing population, long-term care insurance (LTCI) is the most prospective one among commercial insurances. However, the insurance density and penetration is yet to expand. This article, taking Shanghai city as an example and basing analysis on a random sample of 1 012 residents, explores the main factors influencing the demand for LTCI with logit/probit model. The result indicates that factors like income, saving and intergeneration game are not evident, but other factors like medical demand, price and pension willingness are evidently connected with demand. The paper also forecasts the future development of LTCI and offers suggestions based on the empirical analysis of the time series of long term health insurance.

Key words: aging population, long-term care insurance, commercial insurances