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上海大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2019, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (3): 126-140.

• 经济学研究 • 上一篇    

地方政府债券发行利差的影响因素研究

  

  1. 上海财经大学金融学院
  • 收稿日期:2019-01-17 出版日期:2019-05-15 发布日期:2019-05-15

Influencing Factors of Interest Rate Spread in the Issuance of Local Government Bonds

  • Received:2019-01-17 Online:2019-05-15 Published:2019-05-15

摘要： 基于2015-2017年间中国地方政府债券的发行数据，可以对地方政府债券发行利率的影响因素进行研究。研究结果表明：地方政府财政缺口和债务规模的扩大会导致地方政府债券的发行利差上升。此外，债券发行期限越长，同业拆借利率越高，发行利差越大；第二产业占比越高，各省份金融环境越完善，地方政府债券发行利差越小。分样本回归结果显示：不同类型地方政府债券的影响因素不尽相同。具体来说，相比于一般债券，专项债券对地方政府的财政状况更敏感；相比于定向置换债券，公开发行的政府债券发行利率更合理地反映了地方的财政和经济信息。建议加快政府会计制度改革，提高金融市场化程度，吸引多元化的投资主体，完善价格机制，并建立科学的地方政府债券评估和风险预警体系。

关键词: 专项债券, 地方政府债券, 影响因素, 一般债券, 发行利差

Abstract: Based on local government bonds issued during 2015-2017, this paper studies the factors affecting the interest rate spreads of local government bonds. The results show that rising financial gap and debt scale of local governments will lead to the increase of interest rate spread. In addition, bond maturity and Shibor rate are positively correlated to the spread of local government bonds while the proportion of the secondary industry and financial environment degree are negatively correlated. The results of subsample regression show that different types of local government bonds have different influencing factors. Specifically, revenue bonds are more sensitive to the fiscal situation of local governments than general obligation bonds; publicly issued government bonds are more sensitive to market conditions and fiscal situations than directional replacement bonds. Accordingly, we recommend accelerating the reform of the government accounting system, improving financial marketization degree, attracting diversified investment entities, improving the price mechanism and establishing a scientific assessment and risk management system for local government bonds.

Key words: local government bonds, interest rate spread in issuance, influencing factors, special bonds, general revenue bonds