关键词: 世界粮食安全, 组合模型, 预测

Abstract:

 The global economy has a sustained growth and prosperity, but, instead of the hungry phenomenon in the world being eliminated, the population suffered from starvation increases continuously, which signifies a grave situation of world food security. Judging from the current condition, if we want to resolve such problems as population inflation, starvation and food security from the root, it is necessary to urge the international community to gather a common effort to relieve the starvation and malnutrition of povertystricken countries and areas, making their economy and global economy develop together. For the sustained economic growth of developing countries, the first thing is to overcome the problems of starvation and malnutrition and ensure their food security. Therefore forecasting the world output of grain (chiefly corn), meal, egg, milk, aquatic products as well as the population, appears very important, which is helpful for the security of world food, especially for the starvation and malnutrition in developing countries. This essay, by a combined model of linear regression, curve fitting, exponential function, time series and grey system forecast, gives an analysis of such items as population, land, grain, meat, egg, milk, and aquatic product. The result shows that, in the next 20 years, since the amount of land, grain, meat, egg, milk, and aquatic product are all in growth, the total output of world grain will continue to maintain a per capita figure of more than 355 kilograms, slightly higher than the present world average level, that is to say, there is a little chance of the grain crisis all over the world. What's more, the world meat structure will tend to be more reasonable, and both the per capita amount of taking in animal protein and the living standard of the global people will enhance greatly. But that doesn't mean that there will not be any local famine or serious famine, especially for the developing countries in northern Africa and eastern Asia. In addition, be guard against the relative grain insufficiency and land decreasing due to the development of biological energy, which may cause grain crisis.

Key words: world food safety, combined model, forecasting