关键词: 价格粘性, 货币政策, 股票价格, 通货膨胀, 经济增长, SVAR模型

Abstract:

Under the condition of price stickiness, both the money quantity model including financial asset exchange and the interest rate transmission channel in the monetary policy demonstrate the mechanism that the stock price moves prior to the economic growth and inflation. The cointegration test based on the national monthly statistics shows that during 1999 and 2010, there existed a longterm Cointegrated Relation between China's inflation and economic growth, the stock price and the monetary policy. The SVARmodel variance decomposition shows that China' s inflation fluctuation is mainly caused by the impact of stock price and the impact of broad money (m2). The inflation shock explains about 20% of the actual economic growth, but the contribution rate of money supply shock on the stock price fluctuation is higher. In order to improve the proactivity and effectiveness of the monetary policy and to maintain the prices and economic growth at a stable level, close attention should be paid to the stock price fluctuation and quick responses should be made in accordance when making the monetary policy.

Key words: Price stickiness, monetary policy, stock price, inflation, economic growth, SVAR Model