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上海大学学报(社会科学版)

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对中国城镇职工基本养老保险现状的反思——半数省份收不抵支的本质、成因与对策

郑秉文，孙永勇   

  1. 中国社会科学院世界社保研究中心
  • 收稿日期:2012-04-05 出版日期:2012-05-15 发布日期:2012-05-15
  • 通讯作者: 郑秉文（1955-），男，辽宁鞍山人。中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所所长、世界社保研究中心主任，研究员、博士生导师，经济学博士，主要研究方向：世界经济、西方经济学、福利国家、社会保障等。
  • 作者简介:郑秉文（1955-），男，辽宁鞍山人。中国社会科学院拉丁美洲研究所所长、世界社保研究中心主任，研究员、博士生导师，经济学博士，主要研究方向：世界经济、西方经济学、福利国家、社会保障等。

On China' s Urban Employees'  Basic Endowment Insurance Fund
——The Nature, Causes and Solutions for the imbalance of revenue and expenditure of the fund in half of Chinese provinces

 ZHENG Bing-Wen, SUN Yong-Yong   

  • Received:2012-04-05 Online:2012-05-15 Published:2012-05-15

摘要：

中国城镇职工基本养老保险制度存在一个悖论：一方面，基金快速增长，支付能力空前提高；但另一方面，在剔除财政补贴之后，却有半数省份企业部门基本养老保险基金收不抵支。中国城镇职工基本养老保险财务状况存在的这种巨大差异性，是各省之间不同的历史债务、制度赡养率、经济发展水平、劳动力流动空间分布等四个因素共同作用的结果。解决这个问题的根本出路在于实现全国统筹，因为在全国统筹条件下，14个省份的当期支付缺口将会被养老保险基金的快速增长和支付能力的空前提高所“内在化”。但是，统筹层次提高到全国水平将存在普遍的道德风险和逆向选择问题，最终有可能致使养老保险制度陷入较大的财务风险之中。这就是目前仍以县、市统筹为主，只有四五个省份实现省级统筹的主要原因。基于这个分析，在一定时期内，半数省份收不抵支的解决办法只能是依靠财政转移支付，其结果必然是一方面推动养老保险基金规模不断增长，另一方面，在养老保险基金投资体制十分落后和投资回报率十分低下的情况下，财政资金宏观运用低效。为此，改革养老保险基金投资体制迫在眉睫。

关键词: 养老金改革, 城镇职工基本养老保险改革, 资金缺口, 财务风险

Abstract:

An anomaly in China' s Urban Employees'  Basic Endowment Insurance System lies in the fact that in half of China' s provinces, enterprises would be experiencing revenue expenditure imbalance when financial subsidy is deducted from the basic endowment insurance fund despite ever greater payment power due to rapid fund increase. The great difference among provinces in financial situation can be explained in terms of historical liabilities, system maintenance rate, economic development level, and spatial distribution of labor mobility. Overall planning of the fund at the national level would be the ultimate solution for this asymmetry in half of China' s provinces. It would help to cover current payment shortfall in 14 provinces because the shortfall can be "internalized" by the rapid increase and unprecedentedly strong payment power of the fund itself. However, overall planning at the national level might entail moral hazard and adverse choice, thus incurring major financial risks for the endowment insurance system. That is why planning at the county or city level remains the standard practice while provinciallevel planning is implemented only in four to five provinces. Based on this understanding, the imbalance in half of China's provinces can only be redressed with financial transfer payment, which would result in steady increase of the insurance fund on the one hand, and low investment return for the financial capital on the other, due to the outmoded investment system and low rate of return. Therefore, it is urgent to reform the investment system of the endowment insurance fund.

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