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上海大学学报(社会科学版) ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (3): 126-143.

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中国式现代化背景下金融业最优比重研究

  

  1. 上海政法学院 经济管理学院
  • 出版日期:2025-05-15 发布日期:2025-05-26
  • 作者简介:李鹏，上海政法学院经济管理学院教授，经济学博士。研究方向：中国式现代化、产业经济等。

The Optimal Ratio of the Financial Industry Value Added to GDP in the Context of Chinese Modernization

  1. Shanghai University of Political Science and Law
  • Online:2025-05-15 Published:2025-05-26

摘要：

基于习近平关于中国式现代化的重要论述，构建中国式现代化统计指标体系。采用空间自回归模型分析了2004年至2022年中国金融业增加值占国内生产总值（GDP）比重对中国式现代化的影响，研究发现：（1）中国金融业增加值占GDP比重与中国式现代化之间存在显著的倒 U型曲线关系；（2）2004年至 2022年中国金融业最优比重为 5.2%，经济高质量发展阶段（2017年之后）中国金融业最优比重为 5.5%，即经济高质量发展阶段中国金融业增加值

占 GDP的比重维持在 5.5% 时最有利于中国式现代化。从中国式现代化角度出发，中国应该适度降低金融业增加值占GDP比重。

关键词: 金融业最优比重, 中国式现代化, 空间自回归模型

Abstract:

Based on President Xi Jinping’s important discussions on Chinese modernization, a statistical indicator system for Chinese modernization has been constructed. A spatial autoregressive model is employed to analyze the impact of the ratio of financial industry value added to GDP on Chinese modernization from 2004 to 2022. The findings reveal that: (1) there is a significant inverted U-shaped curve relationship between the ratio of financial industry value added to GDP and Chinese modernization; (2) the optimal ratio of financial industry value added to GDP from 2004 to 2022 is 5.2%, while in the stage of high-quality economic development (after 2017), the optimal ratio increases to 5.5%. This indicates that maintaining a ratio of 5.5% for financial industry value added to GDP is most conducive to Chinese modernization during the high-quality economic development phase (after 2017). From the perspective of Chinese modernization, China should moderately reduce the ratio of financial industry value added to GDP.

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