Abstract:  Group incidents are mainly caused by social contradictions. Based on the effecttocause reasoning, this article analyses the social contradictions that could lead to group incidents, with the purpose of preventing such events at source. Given that social contradictions arise from the instability of various subsystems, this article proposes a quantitative analysis model to determine the weight of each subsystem and then constructs an early warning index system for social contradictions. By the method of effecttocause reasoning, the threshold of macro social contradictions is also tentatively provided here.

Key words:  social management, social contradictions, social conflicts, early warning index system, group incidents