Abstract:

The worldvalued experience shows that the earlywarning of finance risk is not only imperative but also practical. This essay, on a basis of the summary of the relevant researches on the earlywarning of finance risk, proposes an index system of financial risk that is characteristic of strong warning function. According to this index system, the earlywarning of finance risk can be graded into four ranks, that is, rank I (safe), rank II (subordinate safe), rank III (guard) and rank Ⅳ (danger). And then, by virtue of the BP manpower neural networks, the author establishes an early warning model of financial risk, carrying out the model training, model checkout and early warning of financial risk from 2003 to 2007 in China. The results are: the national comprehensive financial risk is rank Ⅳ (danger); the financial trade risk is rank III (guard); the macro economy risk is rank III (guard); and other risk (stocks risk chiefly) is rank III (guard). And the factor analysis shows: (1) From the static viewpoint, the national debt in our country is in a proper scale, having no big risk temporarily. But, from the dynamic viewpoint, our country is facing with such a big debt pressure that it can produce a dailyincreased potential risk, thus displaying a contradictory situation, that is, the relaxed environment of paying for debt being against the heavy debt burden (including hidden debt and possible debt). Therefore, we should keep something for a rainy day, trying our best to prevent financial risk. (2) In the first half of 2008, the macroeconomic risk drops to a more proper scope, the actual situation being accord with the predictive ratio, while in the second half of 2008, the impact of the global financial risk causes the macroeconomic risk rising. But, on the whole, in 2008, the national economy keeps a certain growth although the speed is lower than the past few years. And, in 2009, the macroeconomic risk is even bigger, not optimistic about it. (3) For stateowned enterprises, there are overweening debt, deficit running and great nonperforming assets. And banks, by a large increase in profession loan to such industries as real estate, steel, cement and automobile, as well as in personal loan, produce high demand for investment and high credit rating. Therefore, it is necessary to guard new nonperforming assets. (4) The risk of stock market bubble and other risks give a reflection on the excessive dilation of our securities market in the past two years. The practical running of stock market witnesses the creditability of predictive outcome. It is estimated that the risk of stock market bubble in 2009 remains the same as that in 2008.

Key words: Key words：  earlywarning of finance risk; earlywarning index system; earlywarning limitation; earlywarning signal